Artificial Intelligence - The Employment Scenario - Sector-wise Analysis - Part 4
AI is quite a lengthy discussion isn't it? In my last post, we took a page out of our history textbooks to see the impact of automation throughout the ages and also discussed how job creation works. Today, let us take a closer look at how automation will impact employment in India!
In case you haven't read my previous blog post, you can read it by clicking the links below. As this is a continuation of the previous post, I would request you to read that first.
In India, the economy is divided broadly into three sectors, and the contribution of the three sectors to India’s GDP as per Economic Survey of 2017-18 is as follows:
Tertiary sector (Service) - 53.66%.
Secondary sector (Manufacturing) - 29.02%
Primary sector (Agriculture) - 17.32%.
If you look at the graph of sector-wise GDP contribution and sector-wise employment in India, then we can conclude the following:
1. Agriculture, despite being the lowest contributor of GDP, it is still is the key employer.
2. Services, despite being the major contributor to GDP, is not the key employer.
With these insights, let us move forward to analyse the sector-wise impact of automation on employment in India.
First we will discuss about the secondary sector.
Below you can find the tabular presentation of the factors affecting employment which we had discussed in the previous blog and its impact on the sector. Majority of manufacturing is dominated by MSME's (Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises). Even the Government has identified MSME's as a key driver of growth in the economy. We spoke about the cost of labor in India in the previous post. Unless the benefits of automation outweigh the costs, no one will opt for automation. As per NITI Aayog's Three Year Action Agenda, manufacturing is set to get a boost and India will be a natural choice for manufacturers. If things go right, then there will be good deal of opportunities in manufacturing sector.
Also, here are some insights from the Three Year Action Agenda published by NITI Aayog for the period 2017-18 to 2019-20.
Moving on, let us touch upon the primary sector.
Agriculture in India is dependent on nature, for any sort of automation or even for irrigation systems to work, electricity is required and it is only in recent years that rural India has had access to electricity.
Agriculture sector has the highest workforce but also the lowest pay. Agriculture in India has the problem of small area of land under cultivation by each farmer. Majority of farmers in India are marginal and small farmers who hold a total land of 2 hectares or less. Automation can help only if there is a large area of land under cultivation by the farmer. One of the agenda of the Prime Minister is to double farmer's income. Cooperative society model can help if small farmers pool in their lands and decide to use technology to automate work, thus in turn increasing productivity and output.
Lastly, we have the service sector, the sector where automation can have a medium impact.
So, if we see the broad picture, at least in the near future, in India, majority of our workforce is protected from automation. Our problem is different, we have the world's largest young population who are looking to enter the workforce in the next decade and there aren't many jobs for all of them.
However, as this blog is on the technological perspective of employment, I would like to say that, we humans tend
to forget that we – the most naturally intelligent being on the earth have
created an artificially intelligent machine. Imagine if someone heard about AI
a 100 years ago, they would have laughed, but due to limitless human
creativity, intelligence, imagination and courage to do the impossible, we have
come a far way. There is no substitute to human creativity and potential,
because at the end of the day, no robot is going to write insightful articles
like I am doing (Sorry! Couldn't resist!). A robotic teacher is never going to share stories of his/her
experiences, give guidance and keep a class lively like a human teacher and
that is the reason my dear friends, routine and repetitive jobs which don’t
require your creativity or thinking will be extinct, but jobs which require
decision making, human interaction, and creativity will always be there
no matter what. Some things like feelings and emotions, are still
limited to humans, as robots can only recognize human emotions, they
cannot replicate the same.
I would like to
end with a quote by Jonathan Schaeffer, “If we feel like we are being surpassed
by our own technology it’s because we aren’t pushing ourselves hard enough,
aren’t being ambitious enough in our goals and dreams. Instead of worrying
about what machines can do, we should worry more about what they still cannot
do”.
My next post will the last of the Artificial Intelligence series! Hope you guys enjoyed reading this!! Do share your thoughts with me!!
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